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Séminaire ICI : Leszek Szczecinski

Titre du séminaire et orateur

What does FIFA rating mean? Modelling and estimation in sport analytics.

Leszek Szczecinski (INRS, Montréal, Canada).

Date et lieu

Jeudi 27 février 2020, 11h.

ENSEA, salle 384.

Abstract

This talk aims at introduction of the problem of rating of players/teams in sport competitions, which is one of the fundamental problems in sport analytics. We are concerned with one-on-one games with ternary outcomes of win/loss/draw, where the very simple and popular, non-trivial algorithm was proposed by Arpad Elo in late fifties to rate chess players. The algorithm was derived and is often presented without proper modeling assumption thus we will show the mathematical model on which it is built. In particular, we explain what is the implicit but not yet spelled out, assumption about the model of draws in the Elo algorithm. We further extend the model to provide flexibility and remove the unrealistic implicit assumptions of the Elo algorithm. This yields the new rating algorithm, which is equally simple as the Elo algorithm but provides a possibility to adjust to the frequency of draws. The discussion of the appropriate choice of the parameters is carried out and illustrated using results from English Premier League football seasons.

Bio

Leszek Szczecinski is Professor at INRS, University of Quebec, Canada. He obtained M.Eng. degree from the Warsaw University of Technology in 1992, and Ph.D. from INRS-Telecommunications, Montreal in 1997. From 1998 to 2001, he held position of Assistant Professor at the Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Chile. In 2009-2010, as a Marie Curie Research Fellow, he was with CNRS, L2S, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. His research interests are in the area of estimation, detection, signal processing, communication theory, and wireless communications. He coauthors a book "Bit-Interleaved Coded Modulation: Fundamental, Analysis and Design" (Wiley, 2015).

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